Nationwide’s Health of Housing Markets Report


Select a quarter and then press “Play” to initiate the interactive map. To get the performance ranking for a specific MSA, zoom in or scroll over the map or click on the numerical ranking legend for wider comparisons.

Next Release: Scheduled for Tuesday, September 20, 2016.

2016Q2 HoHM Report Executive Summary

  • The national LIHHM* remains above the break-even level of 100 and suggests that the overall U.S. housing market is sustainable, despite slower-than-expected household formations.
  • Regionally, the LIHHM performance rankings show that the housing markets in the vast majority of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and divisions are sustainable. This suggests that most local housing markets are unlikely to see declines in the near term.
  • Energy sector slowdowns are weighing on job growth and housing sustainability for a number of MSAs in energy-intensive areas, especially in North Dakota, Wyoming, and Texas. MSAs in these states comprise the entire bottom 10 LIHHM performance rankings.
  • Serious delinquency rates (including foreclosures) in nearly all MSAs are trending down toward pre-housing bust levels as job and mortgage market conditions steadily improve — helping to boost housing sustainability in much of the country.

* Leading Index of Healthy Housing Markets (LIHHM): A data-driven view of the near-term performance of housing markets based upon current health indicators for the national housing market and 400 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and divisions across the country.

The national LIHHM remains in the healthy zone, suggesting a sustainable U.S. housing market

The current value for the national LIHHM is 104.3, the lowest level in two years. An index value over 100 suggests that the national housing market is healthy, with lower chances of a housing downturn over the next year as the index moves increasingly above the 100 break-even value. Household growth at a national level remained sluggish in the first quarter, weakening demand metrics within the national LIHHM score. National house price growth is outpacing income growth and has reduced relative housing affordability in recent quarters. Regionally, the LIHHM performance rankings show that the vast majority of metro areas across the country are healthy, indicating that few regional housing markets are vulnerable to a housing downturn. The outlook for sustainable housing activity in local markets with strong ties to the energy sector, however, continues to be worrisome, with multiple energy-intensive MSAs now negative.

National LIHHM

Authored by Nationwide Economics

david-berson

DAVID BERSON, PhD

Senior Vice President, Chief Economist

David holds a doctorate in Economics and a master’s degree in Public Policy from the University of Michigan. Prior to Nationwide, David served as Chief Economist, Strategist and Head of Risk Analytics for The PMI Group, Inc., and Vice President and Chief Economist for Fannie Mae. David has also served as Chief Financial Economist at Wharton Econometrics and visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. His government experience has included roles with the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, U.S. Treasury Department and the Office of Special Trade Representative. He is a past President of the National Association for Business Economics.

bryan-jordan

BRYAN JORDAN, CFA

Deputy Chief Economist

Bryan is a frequent author and knowledgeable source on economic topics, and has been featured in The Wall Street Journal and New York Times. Bryan holds degrees in Economics and Political Science from Miami University and has earned the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. He currently serves as Chairman of the Ohio Council on Economic Education and is a member of the Ohio Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors, the National Association for Business Economics, and the Bloomberg monthly economic forecasting panel.

ben-ayers

BEN AYERS, MS

Senior Economist

Ben authors periodic economic analyses from the Nationwide Economics team, as well as commentary on key economic topics. Ben is also responsible for understanding and analyzing the enterprise business drivers to assist the strategic planning process. He holds a Master of Science in Economics from the Ohio State University, specializing in applied economic analysis, and a BSBA from the Fisher College of Business at the Ohio State University, with a focus on economics and international business.

Additional contributors: Chrissy Charters, Matthew Fleming, Michael Groom, Ankit Gupta, Steve Hall, Francine Murzynski, and Matt Workman

NFW-5226AO


This material is provided by Nationwide Economics and is general in nature. It is not intended as investment or economic advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Additionally, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, tax and financial condition or particular needs of any specific person. We encourage you to seek the advice of an investment professional who can tailor a financial plan to meet your specific needs. The economic and market forecasts in this report reflect our opinion as of the date of this presentation/review and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts show a broad range of possible outcomes. Because they are subject to high levels of uncertainty, they may not reflect actual performance. Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only. We obtained certain information from sources deemed reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness.