Nationwide’s Health of Housing Markets Report
Select a quarter and then press “Play” to initiate the interactive map. To get the performance ranking for a specific MSA, zoom in or scroll over the map or click on the numerical ranking legend for wider comparisons.
Next Release: Scheduled for Monday, December 19, 2016.
2016Q3 HoHM Report Executive Summary
- The national LIHHM* suggests that the overall U.S. housing market is sustainable with a positive outlook over the next year due to strong demand drivers and supportive housing affordability.
- Regionally, the LIHHM performance rankings in the vast majority of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and divisions remain positive. This suggests that most local housing markets should see sustainable housing activity in the near term.
- Energy sector slowdowns continue to weigh on the housing outlook in a number of MSAs in energy-intensive areas, especially in North Dakota, Wyoming, Texas, and Louisiana. MSAs in these states comprise the entire bottom 10 LIHHM performance rankings.
- While more than half of MSAs are still below their pre-crash house price peak, about 150 areas have set all-time price peaks this year. This does not signal a price bubble, however, since incomes have climbed and housing market metrics remain healthy.
* Leading Index of Healthy Housing Markets (LIHHM): A data-driven view of the near-term performance of housing markets based upon current health indicators for the national housing market and 400 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and divisions across the country.
The national LIHHM continues to suggest a sustainable U.S. housing market with healthy trends
The current value for the national LIHHM* is 106.7, a slight increase from the first quarter, but a bit lower than the reading from a year ago. National house price growth remains high and is outpacing income growth, but conditions do not suggest a price bubble given the trends in relative housing affordability (see page 5 for more details). Housing demand metrics within the national LIHHM score remain positive in the context of solid job growth and improved household formations.
Regionally, the LIHHM performance rankings show that the vast majority of metro areas across the country are healthy, suggesting that few regional housing markets are vulnerable to a housing downturn over the next year or so. Housing activity for local markets with strong ties to the energy sector, however, continues to be worrisome, with multiple energy-intensive MSAs showing a negative outlook.
This material is provided by Nationwide Economics and is general in nature. It is not intended as investment or economic advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Additionally, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, tax and financial condition or particular needs of any specific person. We encourage you to seek the advice of an investment professional who can tailor a financial plan to meet your specific needs. The economic and market forecasts in this report reflect our opinion as of the date of this presentation/review and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts show a broad range of possible outcomes. Because they are subject to high levels of uncertainty, they may not reflect actual performance. Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only. We obtained certain information from sources deemed reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness.